1,000 days of failure should be a firing offence
We could have done better. We should have done better. We chose not to.
This post was originally delivered as a monologue on NEWSTALK 1010.
Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health spoke to Ontarians today. He started by talking about the crush of patients filling up Ontario’s children’s hospitals. And how we needed to step up to protect our kids. Then he very, very, very strongly urged the public to voluntarily wear masks. In some places. At some times. To protect some people.
At one point, he said kids as young as 2 years old should wear masks. And kids and others in schools. And in hospitals. And people with compromised immune or respiratory systems. And parents at home with infants. And people around all of the above. Indoors.
His message was, I think I’m being charitable here: unclear.
What was clear is that this is not a mandate. Just a strong recommendation. So far.
What will happen next is this: The members of school boards and boards of health across Ontario will take it upon themselves to mandate masks. How could they not? They’re politicians – not scientists. Not doctors. Those few with medical backgrounds were not appointed to be experts. They were elected or appointed because they want to be politicians. The Henny Pennys who vote for them will demand it.
By the end of this week, Ontario will be a patchwork quilt of different mask mandates, regulations and guidelines imposed by well meaning tyrants with little or no expertise in anything. Mask mandates in schools will require lunchroom policies: kids can’t eat with their masks on. So, some boards will impose social distancing guidelines for lunch rooms. Some boards will ban talking and laughing at lunch time. They did it before. They will do it again.
Many kids will benefit from masking. Many kids will be harmed.
How many? I don’t know. I hope Dr. Moore knows. But, he won’t say. Never has.
We know masking has mitigated the spread of COVID-19 in school districts in the USA. Canada is likely the same. So, there’s clearly some benefit. We also know many young kids failed to learn communication skills and classroom lessons while they and their teachers were masked. Learning social and communication skills are primary objectives of education. So, there’s clearly some harm.
What we don’t know is how many more kids benefited than were harmed. We should know that.
There is never a zero risk option. Our leaders should know this. They should tell us what the trade-offs are. Not doing so creates a fertile valley for wild conspiracy theories.
At no point in the past three years of COVID-19 has any political, medical or public health leader even admitted there is some harm to the public health measures they imposed.
I’ve done crisis and risk management for 40 years. On Day One – and every day since – I learned there are no zero risk options. Ever.
Every measure intended to manage risk always carries its own risk. Putting water on a burning house causes enormous water damage to the building and its contents. Sometimes, more than the fire. But, on balance, the damage from fire and the threat to other structures outweighs the damage from water. It’s a risk vs. risk assessment and the water makes sense.
I’m willing to believe the potential harm to kids masking is less than the potential harm from infection. But, no one in authority has has ever said that. No one has even admitted – or hinted – that there is any risk to the mitigation measures. And there always is. That opens the door to speculation. Which creates a fertile valley for wild conspiracy theories.
Not talking about the risk of the mitigation is unprofessional. It’s stupid. It undermines the goal of risk management.
We’ve been at this for almost three years now. 1,000 days as Dr. Moore said this morning. We should be better at it than this. We should be better at communicating risk. That we are not should be a fireable offence.
We should also not need masks by now. If we wanted to, we could have built entire hospitals in three years. We certainly could have created new ICUs and expanded ERs.
We could have trained thousands of medical professionals to staff these ERs and ICUs. We could have taken nurses and doctors and upgraded their skills for ICUs and ERs. We could have backfilled their positions with others.
We could have trained thousands of medics and paramedics to staff hospitals. The military trains medics in weeks and months – not years. Those medics are the backbone of a world class trauma system where MDs and nurses are few and far between. We could have done the same for our hospitals. It would have required some innovative thinking and willingness to change.
We chose not to.
That should be a fireable offence.
Any political, ministry of health, medical or public health leader who calls for a return to mask mandates should explain the cost of doing so and why it’s worth it. Then, they should resign in disgrace.
They’ve had almost three years to increase capacity. 1,000 days. They failed. They need to go. Canadians deserve better.