5 takeaways from Toronto's mayoral by-election

What matters. What doesn't: Air War, Ground War, Endorsements or Advance Voting?

Olivia Chow is Toronto’s new mayor. How did she win?

In an unexpectedly close race, Olivia Chow has become the first NDP mayor of Toronto since David Miller led the amalgamated “mega-city” from 2003–2010. What did we learn from the campaign and the way the votes break down?

Although, political parties are illegal in Ontario municipal politics, the New Democratic Party in Toronto has long organized its left-leaning progressive/socialist forces on an unofficial basis. Party members choose a standard-bearer to run in each Toronto ward and mayoral campaign to avoid splitting the left-wing vote. Once elected, their chosen champions work together as a caucus, assigning portfolio responsibilities to councillors.

Olivia Chow led consistently in the polls throughout the 2023 mayoral by-election campaign, averaging 30–37 percent, well ahead of her nearest challenger who maxed out at about 22 percent in the final polls before election day. Chow had considerable opposition, with 102 candidates on the ballot to be Toronto’s fifth modern mayor.

Modern Era Toronto was born on January 1, 1998 when six former cities (Toronto, Etobicoke, Scarborough, North York, York and East York) were amalgamated with the regional government of Metropolitan Toronto to form the current “mega-city.” Modern Era Toronto is the fourth largest city in North America and Canada’s sixth largest government. “Toronto Mayors” before 1998 represented a fraction of the current city that exists today and never faced the complexity and scope of challenges Modern Era Toronto mayors face.

Take Aways

1.     Advance Voting matters. Toronto voters had the choice to vote on Election Day – June 26, 2023 or during six days of Advance Voting from June 8 – 13. They could also vote by mail until June 15. Once they cast advance votes, however, voters could not change their mind. Many “Anybody But Chow” voters cast their ballots in advance polls before a clear “ABC” leader emerged.

Polls conducted in the last days of the campaign suggest Olivia Chow handily won the Advance Votes. Her nearest rivals split the ABC vote.

Former Toronto Mayor John Tory and the Toronto Star endorsed Ana Bailao as their preferred candidate after advance voting ended. Polling support for Bailao ballooned. This was apparent in the last Mainstreet Research poll before election day when Bailao’s support grew to 22% from the low teens – almost entirely at the expense of the non-Chow candidates. But advance votes cast for those other candidates were locked in and could not switch to Bailao.

On election night, Bailao led in early returns from Election Day voters – until the Advance Votes were announced and Chow jumped to a significant lead. Final results show support for ABC candidates seen in advance voting collapsed around Ana Bailao as the preferred choice. But, it was too late for advance voters to switch their support.

2.     The Ground War matters. Candidates who were unable to motivate thousands of volunteers to canvas homes, identify supportive voters, put up signs, staff 1,500+ polling stations for six days of advance voting plus election day, and get their supporters out to vote, failed. It takes a large, professionally orchestrated campaign team with thousands of well-trained volunteers to win a major election. Even those who did well in the “Air War” were unable to break through without a commanding ground effort.

3.     The Air War matters – in a limited way. Candidates like Anthony Furey, Chloe Brown and Xiao Hua Gong ran effective PR, advertising and/or social media campaigns – the “Air War” of campaigning.

Furey’s messaging was extremely effective and disciplined and he advanced from “never heard of him” to finish fourth – taking up to 11 percent of support in advance polling before receding to 5 percent when the ABC vote coalesced around Bailao on Election Day. So, the Air War matters.

Gong didn’t appear to run a real campaign at all – but spent thousands of dollars to blanket the city with signs (likely installed by paid staff) and multi-media advertising. Despite the fact virtually no one knows who he is, he finished in 11^th place, ahead of a number of previously-elected, experienced politicians with much higher name recognition. So, the Air War matters.

But – without an effective Ground War, none of the Air War only candidates came close to winning. So, the Air War matters – but it does not win campaigns.

4.     Endorsements matter. Surprise! The endorsement of Ana Bailao by former mayor John Tory made a huge difference. It mattered. Voters looking for a candidate to beat Olivia Chow heeded his advice and coalesced around Bailao. But, it was too little, too late. Many ABC voters had already voted in advance polls for other candidates and their potential support was lost.

It was John Tory’s resignation in disgrace after news broke of an affair he’d had with a political staffer that triggered this by-election in the first place. So, there was some reticence even among previous allies like Bailao to seek – or accept - his endorsement until it was too late. In fact, she pointedly tried to distance herself from Tory early in her campaign.

5.     The Ballot Question matters. Mark Saunders and Anthony Furey tried to frame a ballot question around “who will make Toronto safer?” It simply didn’t work. Together, they earned just 12.6 percent of the votes cast. Olivia Chow and Ana Bailao campaigned on “who will make Toronto affordable?” That was closer the question voters were asking themselves at the ballot box.

But, the real Ballot Question on the minds of voters in this chaotic by-election appears to have been “who do I know and trust to make decisions that might help me?” Frankly, that’s almost always the real question.

Lessons Learned

Olivia Chow ran a disciplined, professional campaign. As the campaign leader, she was well-advised to say little during the campaign, and focused primarily on ground game. Critically, she was able to get her supporters out to advance polls, locking in their votes no matter what happened next. The Air War is important, but it alone cannot win an election without a strong, professional Ground War using thousands of volunteers. Endorsements make a difference, but they need to happen before Advance Voting ends.

How do you feel about the results?