Can Canada really ban gas cars by 2030?
A reality check on battery technology suggests... No.
One of my favourite tests for any new government policy or business strategy is to ask the simple question: What if it works?
Toronto’s mayor once proposed tolling privately owned automobiles on the city’s highways in order to finance public transit. His stated goal was to transition commuters out of cars and onto buses, streetcars and subways. What if his plan worked? What if road tolls drove everyone out of their cars and onto transit? How would they pay for that transit then – when there was no more money from road tolls?
Canada’s federal government has announced it will ban the sale of Internal Combustion Engine vehicles beginning in 2030. That’s less than eight years from today. What if they do?
Canadians bought 1.5 million new motor vehicles in 2020. It was a down year during the pandemic. Who’s going to make 1.5 million new Electric Vehicles for sale in Canada in 2030? Who’s going to buy them? Those are market-making questions.
A far more important question is how are they going to power these EVs?
The most common, affordable power source for EVs today – and for the next decade – is a lithium ion battery.
An average li-on EV battery pack contains about 8kg of lithium. Or more. If all of Canada’s 1.5 million “ICE-free” vehicles in 2030 are going to be EVs, that means Canada alone will require at least 12,000 tons of lithium to produce one year’s worth of new vehicle sales in 2030. Where will it come from?
The US Geological Survey estimates current worldwide production of lithium is about 37,000 tons per year. Will Canada really be able to secure one third of the world’s lithium just for its own EVs?
Global lithium reserves are estimated at 80 million tons using current technology. That’s enough for about 10 million EVs on the whole planet. There are currently 1.4 billion vehicles on Earth. So, without a watershed new technology, there is not enough lithium readily available to replace more than 0.7 per cent of the world’s motor vehicles.
EVs are also not the only uses for li-on batteries. There’s cellphones, laptops and tablets. And, many companies are working to commercialize large li-on battery packs for homes and businesses as means to store electricity generated by wind and solar installations when it isn’t immediately needed. Charging your home’s battery with solar during the day, for example, then using it to light your home at night. All these batteries too rely on lithium. The same lithium the world is currently lacking.
EV’s are not the short term answer
If Canada is banking on selling 1.5 million new EVs in 2030 – and every year forever after – we’re going to fail. It’s just not going to happen.
There are, however, other answers.
New technologies that can unlock more lithium from the world’s crust will surely be developed. This would vastly expand the amount of li-on EVs we can produce. But it won’t be cheap and it won’t be fast. Will it be ready in seven years? Inconceivable.
There is also hydrogen. Although many municipalities and citizens are leery about using hydrogen to power vehicles, it’s a proven technology that is in use today. It seems to be an obvious solution. Hydrogen is renewable and easy to manufacture. It can be delivered to cars using existing gasoline distribution infrastructure. Drivers can fill up and go, just like gas, and the waste produced by a Hydrogen engine is simply water – H2O – pure, clean water. There is no pollution. There are no evil greenhouse gases.
Encouraging alternative fossil fuels such as natural gas may also be a smart short-term bridge to help Canada and other nations hit their GHG reduction targets before EVs are a realistic solution for the masses. But, not everyone believes they’re cleaner.
Trudeau’s vision requires tech that doesn’t yet exist
The unsavoury reality is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s vision for a clean, green electric car future within a decade is simply impossible without radical advances in technology. That technology will require investment and time. I’m sure it will come.
But, not by 2030. No way.
80 million tonnes = 10 million cars?
At 8kg per car I get a very different answer
Regardless though, your point stands, Canada will not get 1/3 of the global supply and the infrastructure to charge those doesn't exist and won't.