Can Poilievre be the leader Canada needs?
The time for acerbic criticism is over. The time to gather and inspire the nation is now.
Pierre Poilievre got this far in his political career by being a brilliant, cutting attack dog. It’s got him within an arm’s reach of power. What Canada needs today is not that.
Canada now needs a leader who can bring the nation together in common cause and inspire self-sacrifice, discipline and hard work to make us stronger.
Can Poilievre be that leader?
In just a few weeks, the Conservative Party of Canada has lost much of its 20+ percentage point lead over Justin Trudeau’s foundering Liberals. Leaderless, the Liberals have rebounded since Trudeau announced on Jan. 7 he would resign. It’s not unusual for political parties to get a healthy bump in polling during leadership races; there’s lots of attention on them, there’s hope for a fresh beginning, and a bevy of potential leaders to choose from. Expect the polls to drop a bit once the new Liberal Party leader is chosen and those who were hoping for another choice begin to lose interest. That’s normal.
But this is not just that. It’s much bigger.
Canadians hate Justin Trudeau. They want a change. It’s rare for a change of figurehead to be enough to sate the bloodlust of an angry nation. Could it be sufficient in this case?
Since he was elected leader of the Conservatives in 2022, Pierre Poilievre has delivered a tightly-scripted, well-disciplined message to Canadians. He’s a good speaker. He stays on message. The message was pragmatic. Pragmatism wins elections.
Axe the Tax. Build the Homes. Fix the Budget. Stop the Crime.
Boring. Repetitive. Effective. It resonates because it aligns with problems Canadians see, hear and feel every day.
There is peril in having such a great lead over your opponent: you may be lulled into self-confidence and deviate from pragmatism, begin to preach idealism. Until recently, Poilievre has skilfully avoided the pitfall. Until now.
On Monday, Poilievre gave a speech in Iqaluit announcing his plan for Arctic security. It was a bold, smart move. Canada’s claim on the Arctic is recognized pretty much by Canada alone. The resources, land, water and skies we claim as ours are coveted by every developed nation on Earth. Including Russia and China. Including an increasingly belligerent US president who wants to annex Canada as his “51st State” so he can have unfettered access to Canada’s riches.
Poilievre promised to deliver four (rather than the currently planned two) “heavy ice breakers” by 2029, double the strength of the Canadian Rangers who patrol remote northern reaches and establish a full-time military base in Iqaluit. These are smart and necessary moves. But, how will he pay for them?
“One hundred per cent of the cost of the base will come from the foreign aid budget,” he said. “In fact, today’s announcement will actually reduce the deficit because I plan to cut foreign aid more than the full cost of the announcement that I’ve made today.”
Poilievre criticized foreign aid spending, saying much of it goes to “dictators, terrorists and global bureaucracies.”
“We’ve got our own problems at home. We have our own backyard to protect.”
– CTV News
And that, right there, is a step off the Pragmatic Path into the land of ideology. Worse, it sounds too much like Donald Trump’s recent orders to withdraw US foreign aid funding from the developing world and all but shut down USAID, America’s international assistance agency.
Far too many Canadians go to sleep at night wondering how they’ll pay rent or feed their families tomorrow and worried someone may invade their homes or steal their cars while they sleep. Poilievre has been speaking to them with his “Axe the Tax” mantra.
No one loses sleep worrying Canada spends too much on foreign aid. The hate-on for foreign aid is not a pragmatic issue. It’s an ideological one for a small sect of Conservatives.
Pragmatism wins votes. Ideology loses them.
Poilievre has never been very popular among Canadians. It’s too easy to paint him as unlikeable, because he’s made his bones as a pitbull. Attacking comes naturally to him. So many clips of him sounding angry and vindictive make him an opposition propagandist’s dream.
If there’s a politician on our TV screens more unlikeable than Poilievre, it’s Trudeau. But, Trudeau is leaving and that’s bad news for Poilievre. Even worse for Poilievre: the only politician more unlikeable than Trudeau, is Donald Trump. And Poilievre’s promise to slash foreign aid funding sounds too much like Trump.
Poilievre should not be channeling Donald Trump right now. It may play well with a small hardcore slice of his Conservative base, but to nobody else. The majority of Poilievre’s conservative supporters are patriots who currently see Trump as Public Enemy Number One in Canada. Parroting Trump was unnecessary and ill-advised.
Lucky for Poilievre, there’s still time to recover from this unforced error and to secure his advantage over his next Liberal rival.
Canada does not need an attack dog as its next elected Prime Minister. It needs an effective leader. Canadians are begging for political leadership.
In the face of a belligerent Donald Trump who has launched an economic war against Canada, Canadians are spontaneously coming together in a show of putative national unity unlike anything I’ve seen before. The Centennial celebration in 1967 may be the last time we’ve collectively congealed this way. I was too young then to remember much.
Can Poilievre be the leader Canada needs right now?
Maybe. He is in the right place for it. So far, he hasn’t shown the public much of the Royal Jelly. Then again, he’s never had to. Now, he must.
I’ve seen nothing to suggest he cannot rise to the occasion. Opposition leaders rarely become prime ministers by leading the way there. They normally benefit from mass disaffection with the outgoing government. Many prime ministers never lead. Only in the face of pressing national need does leadership typically emerge. John A. MacDonald during Confederation. Mackenzie King during the Second World War. Pierre Trudeau during the October Crisis. Jean Chretien during the second Quebec referendum. Forgive me, my woeful knowledge of our political history.
A pressing national need has arrived. Canada faces an existential crisis that will ask much of us over the next four years. If we are to emerge from the coming economic war as a successful, sovereign nation, we must be united by a strong leader.
This crisis may have arrived too early for Pierre Poilievre’s liking. But, it may be just in time to secure his victory. If he can seize the moment.
He’s fortunate none of his would-be Liberal rivals have the right stuff. Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney may come closest, but the Liberal heir apparent has never earned a vote in his lifetime. Though he’s held senior civil service and central banking roles, it’s difficult to tell if he’s got a leader’s skill. Certainly, he must be a capable manager. But, none of those management roles have demanded much leadership.
The other Liberals vying to succeed Trudeau are non-starters. They’ve each repeatedly demonstrated they do not have the leadership acumen Canada needs. They built careers as perennial “yes” men and women who vehemently defended a prime minister who repeatedly violated ethics rules and put self-interest ahead of the nation’s interest. They followed Trudeau blindly into policies they now admit were wrong. Policy issues Poilievre has been campaigning against for years. They can’t beat him.
Carney, though, is an unknown quantity. Can he lead? We don’t know. Can he beat Poilievre? Not if Poilievre is smart.
So far, Poilievre has campaigned on pragmatic pocketbook issues best exemplified by his commitment to “Axe” the carbon tax. Policy merits aside, it is a deeply unpopular tax that has laid waste to the spending power of everyday Canadians. Even the Liberals now recognize this and all their leadership contenders have pledged to eliminate it – at least in its current form.
Although he claims to be an “outsider,” Carney has been the Liberal Party’s official economic architect since 2020. He has literally written books, delivered keynote speeches and created international banking organizations dedicated to reducing carbon emissions in part by pricing it. He owns Canada’s carbon tax policy.
It’s time for Poilievre to pivot. Fortunately for him, the pivot is ready-made and historically tested.
In 2010, Rob Ford ran for mayor of Toronto on a campaign focused on money issues. His opponents ran on transit. They’d read public opinion polls that showed transit was the number one issue on the minds of voters. Rob Ford had spoken with thousands of Toronto voters on their front porches, in their tenement apartments and on the phone for a decade. He knew money was the big issue. The same polls showing transit as “top of mind” also showed Ford was right: the next four or five issues were all about money: taxes are too high, the city is unaffordable, city hall wastes money, government is too big, politicians are getting rich while voters are getting poor, etc. Added together, money issues eclipsed transit completely.
By Labour Day, the other mayoral candidates realized Ford was ahead because money was the only important issue. They pivoted to money too, hoping to close the gap with Ford. Knowing this would eventually happen, Ford was ready with his own pivot. He began to say See – they all agree with me now. We have to control spending at City Hall. I’ve been saying this for 10 years. They saw the light on Tuesday. Who do you trust to fight over spending at City Hall?
Poilievre can do the same. He can now, righteously, say See – even Liberals agree the carbon tax was wrong. It hurts Canadians. They were all wrong. They hurt Canadians. I’ve been saying this forever. They’ve just read the polls. Who can you really trust to axe the tax?
But an effective pivot is not enough.
Poilievre must become the leader Canada needs right now. He must use his oratorical skills to bring Canadians together. To make us proud of Canada again. To point out our strengths. To unite us against our common foe. To show the courage of conviction and make us share it with him. He must lead and inspire us.
He may need some new staffers to help him shape a new message. He may need new writers to help him convey optimism and opportunity rather than deliver acerbic criticism. He may need a few fresh advisors to help him hone the instincts that mark truly great leaders. He may need to appoint another attack dog from his bench to bedevil Carney, or whomever, the Liberals anoint as leader.
Can Poilievre do this? I certainly hope so. He’s the only one in the right place at the right time.
If he cannot emerge quickly as a great leader, Canada may be condemned to a very unpleasant fate.
Excellent commentary Mark! I agree wholeheartedly. Two things... 1) does Pierre know 2) enough of the slogans. As you say, now it's time to show leadership and nation-(re)building.
Fuck no, we need an adult at the wheel more than ever before.