Dear Editors: Most of your COVID news is useless

Some data make sense. Most doesn't. Here's how to fix this

Too many news editors, producers and reporters are simply regurgitating government COVID-19 data and it’s largely meaningless to their audiences.

An open letter to those who write, edit and produce our news:

Almost all of your radio and TV news reports these days include a litany of government produced COVID-19 facts and figures. You might as well read out atomic weights from the periodic table. It’s mostly meaningless drivel that you feel compelled to report for some reason. You shouldn’t. It’s data. Not news.

Your job is to deliver news your audiences can use. Reciting a litany of numbers without putting them in context is a waste of your audience’s time and attention. It’s an immediate tune-out. Which is bad for you, your station and your audience.

Many of the COVID-19 figures you report are meaningless

You say: “Ontario is reporting 780 new cases of COVID-19”One might assume that one “case” refers to one person ill with COVID-19. It does not. It never has. The 780 “new cases” reported here, typically means 780 positive PCR test results. Normally, a positive test result would be returned to the patient’s physician who would use that as one piece of information, along with a physical examination, medical history and the community environment to decide if the patient “has COVID-19.” That’s not happening.

If you’ve been to a hospital during the pandemic, you may have had a COVID-19 test before going to the hospital and another test as soon as you arrive. You may then have had multiple tests inside the hospital. If one test comes back positive, you’ll likely have another one done immediately. Then, perhaps more tests when you change wards within the hospital and more as you progress through your treatment, followed by other tests when you get home. One person may have two or 10 PCR tests. If they’re all positive, they’re likely all reported in the daily statistics. One person with COVID-19 could easily equate to 10 reported “cases.” The number, on its own, is meaningless to your audience.

You say: “The number of cases in Ontario so far is 619,270. And 602,515 people have recovered.” That’s accurate data from the December 1, 2021 Ontario COVID-19 report. But, what am I supposed to do with that information?

It’s a very large number. So, it must be scary. But, to interpret what it means, I need to do some math in my head. A good editor or reporter would do the math for me. The only useful bit of this information is the difference between these two numbers – less the number of people who died (they didn’t recover) to know how many people have COVID-19 right now. In other words: 619,270 (cases to date) – 602,515 (recovered) – 10,005 (deaths) = 6,750 people in Ontario currently have COVID-19. Tell me this.

I can use this information because I know there are about 14.5 million people in Ontario. So, I can figure out that 0.047 percent of the population is currently infected. In other words, the chances I’m going to bump into one are infinitesimally small. If I wash my hands, wear my mask and keep a reasonable distance from strangers, I’ll almost certainly be fine. Even better, do the math yourself and tell me so.

You say: “The seven-day moving average” Moving averages are a useful way of smoothing out the volatility in case numbers. But, you rarely explain that on air. At most, you’ll say it’s going up or going down. But, smoothing the data doesn’t change the fact the data is largely meaningless in the first place: case numbers are irrelevant to how we’re going to live our lives. What can I do with information that is meaningless?

You say “Test positivity is 3.4 percent” This may be a useful piece of information for public health officials, but it’s a meaningless figure for the average person. It takes time to report. Time that would be better served by doing the math and telling me the rate of infection in Ontario is 0.047 percent. So, I should keep calm.

You say: “There are 155 people in ICU, of whom 133 are not fully vaccinated or their vaccination status in unknown.” This could be useful information if I knew how many ICU beds there are. But, I don’t and you don’t tell me. Don’t be lazy. Do the math. Tell me what percentage of ICU beds are full – better yet, tell me how many are available. That’s how I will judge whether this is a problem.

You say: “Vaccination status” I understand many people want this information – so I understand why it’s reported. But, it’s not particularly useful information. If I’m sick, I’m sick. If I’m vaccinated, I’m less likely to catch this virus, get sick from the virus, or transmit the virus to others. Vaccination is safe, it’s smart and it’s important.

Reporting vaccination status of people in ICU provides fodder for anti-vaxxers to say “See! Vaccines don’t work.” Wrong. They do. Not reporting vaccination status also provides fodder for anti-vaxxers to say “See! They’re hiding the fact vaccines don’t work.” Wrong. They still do. So, it’s a lose-lose proposition for editors and reporters unless you put the numbers in context. How can you do that?

Over 75 percent of all Ontarians are fully vaccinated. That’s about 10,875,000 people. Leaving about 3,625,000 who are unvaccinated. So, do the math for me. 133 unvaccinated people are in ICU. That means 0.004 percent of all unvaccinated Ontarians are in ICU. Just 22 vaccinated Ontarians are in ICU (155-133), meaning 0.0002 percent of vaccinated people are in ICU. In other words, unvaccinated people in Ontario are 19 times more likely to end up in ICU compared to vaccinated people.

With such a high vaccination rate in Ontario, most people who get COVID-19 (“cases”) will not get seriously sick. So, instead of terrifying people with rising “case” counts – tell us how it’s impacting our healthcare system. Is it a problem? Or, isn’t it.

Do the math: give me information I can use

I don’t need to hear about daily case counts. I think the government should publish this information. But, if I was writing or editing a 120-second news cast, I wouldn’t waste any of that precious time telling people information they don’t need. Tell me that ICUs are at xx% of capacity. Then tell me what the government is doing about it.

What information do you want from the news?