DON'T PANIC!

There is zero evidence that "Omicron" is how the world ends

Headlines and breathless quotes from Canadian political leaders would have you believe Omicron is coming to kill you. All actual data so far say this is simply not true. There is absolutely no reason for the panic-responses we’re seeing from our governments.

If you listen to Canadian radio, watch Canadian TV or read Canadian newspapers, magazines, social media or websites, you’d think the world was ending. Again.

Why?

A new variant of the COVID-19 virus, ominously named Omicron after a globe-destroying super villain in the DC comics universe of Superman and Batman, is currently ravaging the planet, killing every man, woman and child in its path.

At least that’s what it sounds like if you listen to the breathless Prime Ministers, Ministers, Premiers, Mayors and Public Health officials being quoted by our news media.

But none of that is true.

Omicron was the name of a globe-destroying but short-lived super villain and nemesis for Superman and Batman (pictured in yellow tights.) Like it’s namesake, the Omicron virus doesn’t live up to its billing.

Canada’s politicians acted quickly to blockade this variant. But, why?

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s Prime Minister poo-poo’d opposition politicians’ calls to close the country’s borders to inbound travellers, calling them racists. Once the virus was firmly lodged and spreading fast inside Canada, the PM acted “decisively” to order the borders closed like the doors on an empty horse barn.

Stung by the criticism he’d acted too late, this time Justin Trudeau was resolved to act too soon. So, he quickly banned flights from predominantly black African countries where Omicron is spreading in the community. Premiers and mayors want even more.

Ontario’s government announced there would be no further loosening of pandemic restrictions on night clubs and event venues – and warned that a return to capacity restrictions and even lockdowns are on the table.

Some public health districts in Ontario are already moving to reinstate partial closure orders on restaurants.

Why?

Is Omicron a highly virulent, much more deadly mutation of the COVID-19 virus?

No, it is not.

There is evidence that Omicron may be more transmissible in Africa. But, reports from other countries where Omicron has emerged appear to dispute this. We just don’t know if it’s a more contagious form of the virus. But, it makes sense that it might be, because that’s how viruses evolve.

Viruses are weird little organisms. Unlike bacteria, which also cause nasty infections, viruses lack the ability to reproduce on their own. Instead, they must invade other cells within their hosts, and copy their own DNA into the nucleus of the invaded cell. When that cell then reproduces, it creates a new copy of the virus instead of what it would have created otherwise. That new virus then attacks, invades and hijacks another cell, spreading itself within the host – and getting coughed, spit and otherwise ejected from the host into the air to find a new host and replicate the process.

But, the virus DNA doesn’t always get copied correctly into the hijacked cell. Sometimes those “mistakes” create new mutations of the virus. Sometimes those new mutations are weak and they die off. Sometimes those mutations are better at copying themselves and flying through the air to infect other hosts – that’s a good thing for the virus: it means it can grow and spread. Sometimes those mutations make the virus more deadly – that’s a bad thing for the virus, because it means its host will die before the virus can reproduce en masse and infect others. The virus needs a live host in order to reproduce. Those mutations typically don’t spread far.

So, it makes sense that those mutations that are (a) more easily spread and (b) less deadly are the best equipped to spread faster than other versions of the virus.

If Omicron is more transmissible, that makes sense. Like the Delta variant, it will become more dominant than others.

But, it doesn’t make sense to assume Omicron will be more deadly – if it is, it will likely die out fast. So far, there is no evidence anywhere that Omicron is more deadly. In fact, what evidence there is seems to suggest Omicron makes people less sick, not more sick. That makes sense, as it means Omicron will live longer in each host and infect more people, spreading further.

So, why all the panic?

Our response to Omicron is driven by politics – not science or data

Ontario politicians are already sounding the alarms about Omicron and Christmas with Delta. They’re backing off on a return to freedom and threatening to lock us all up again. Why? They say “cases are rising.”

They are, sort of. But, so what?

Cases don’t mean anything, as I’ve explained before. And, because over 75 percent of Ontario residents are fully vaccinated, even when they do catch COVID-19, they don’t get very sick. And that’s important. More important than case counts.

The number of people being hospitalized, especially in Intensive Care, is what really matters. On that score – the score that matters – Ontario is doing just fine, thank you very much. How do I know? The province’s own data say so.

In fact, the number of COVID-19 patients in Ontario hospitals has been pretty stable for at least six months. There is no scary upward trend that might justify a panicked response from policymakers. In fact, there’s no upward trend at all.

This graph, from Public Health Ontario, shows the number of hospitalizations (in yellow against the left-hand scale) and the rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 population (in black against the right-hand scale) have gone up and down within a narrow range since June. The trend is stable, with about 0.2 people out of 100,000 being hospitalized during this period, with occasional spikes up to 0.3 and occasional valleys as low as 0.0 to 0.1.

In the last few days, hospitalization rates have dropped significantly. There’s no cause for alarm here.

Ontario politicians need to take a chill pill. There is no evidence whatsoever to justify their panicked rush to lock everyone down yet again.

I know they feel the need to look like they’re doing something. I know they’re calculating that you’ll see their frenzy as action and be more likely to vote for them this summer. I think they’re wrong. I think you should see their frenzy as incompetence and toss them out in the 2022 election.

Perhaps, Prime Minister Trudeau and Premier Ford should turn to the pages of Douglas Adams’ The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy for advice. The fictional guide for Adams’ fictional character carries the words “Don’t Panic!” emblazoned on its fictional cover. Equally good advice for Canada’s fictional leaders battling this fictional crisis.

Are you afraid of the Big, Bad Omicron variant?