Poilievre is losing the election. Here's why.
Conservatives are being out marketed by the Liberal operatives producing Carney
This post started as a Tweet. Then it got longer. And then longer still. So, now it’s a column and here it is. Maybe still way too long.
For context, I do not want another five weeks – let alone five years – of Liberal rule in Canada. The decade of despair under Justin Trudeau has destroyed almost everything and everyone I hold dear. The Canada I love is hard to find these days. Your mileage, of course, may vary. But for me, it simply cannot be allowed to go on.
Make no mistake about it though: Mark Carney is winning.
Carney is winning this election principally because Pierre Poilievre is losing it.
Poilievre’s Conservative Party has been holding pretty strong at about 40% in public opinion polls of voter intent. In normal years, in a multiparty race, that’s more than enough for a commanding majority in Canada’s Parliament. But, this is not a normal year. This is no longer a multi-party race.
With the president of the USA declaring (economic, so far) war on us, Canadians now face the stark realization we are under an existential threat. “Nice to haves” and ideological day dreams are no longer important to anyone. Survival is.
This election is not a multi-party race anywhere outside Quebec. Everywhere else, it’s a two-party race between Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP has evaporated. It’s simply not a factor this time around. That’s very bad news for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. But, it shouldn’t have to be.
At the federal level in Canada, the NDP has never been a “governance party” – it doesn’t seek to win elections and form governments. That’s not its purpose. Canada’s NDP (like the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois) is a “soapbox party” – it seeks only a platform from which to prosthelytize on whatever moves its members to emote. Ideology mostly. Governing requires hard work and compromise. Federal Dippers aren’t up for that. They just want to have meetings, talk about how the world would be better if… then go for a drink. Having some elected MPs gives them access to the Parliamentary Press Gallery. Hzving enough for recognition as an official party gives them access to millions of dollars for research and staff jobs for the faithful.
Tom Mulcair, former NDP Leader of the Opposition once told me how he was properly chastised by members in a party town hall meeting for “selling out” NDP values by trying to appeal to more Canadians and win an election. Not what those members wanted.
With Canada in peril – literally threatened with erasure from the map – most lucid NDP voters are sliding down Maslow’s pyramid of electoral motivation and looking to support someone, something, that will keep our country alive so they can pursue ideology another day. That someone is not Jagmeet Singh. That something is not the NDP.
After 10 years of Liberal rule, during which Canada’s GDP-per capita has plummeted, we dropped from near the top to near the bottom of global “happiness” rankings, saw purchasing power for most Canadians evaporate, made housing unaffordable for all but baby boomers and the rich, witnessed line ups at food banks reach Great Depression lengths, traditional NDP voters are looking for hope. They’re seeking refuge in an alternative champion that can face the Wicked Witch of Washington. Hey, not all witches are women!
Unintuitively, the Conservatives should be a logical choice for many disaffected NDP voters. When you strip ideology out of the equation and focus on kitchen table pocketbook issues, there is massive overlap between Conservative and NDP voters. They want stable jobs, decent paycheques, affordable homes, safer families, and better futures. You see this often in rural areas that switch from Orange to Blue or back again on the regular. But these are not normal times.
I’ve written and spoken before – extensively – about the challenge Pierre Poilievre faces in transforming from opposition pitbull into a man who can lead Canada through normal times. That task is even harder in a crisis. I can now say: he is not succeeding. So far.
Whether that’s due to an innate inability to make the shift, or his reliance on a team of political operatives who don’t understand the difference and are manifestly unequipped to inspire a nation, is unclear. It doesn’t really matter. Either he changes, and wins the election in 30 days, or he fails and watches from the sidelines as the Conservative Party replaces him with Doug Ford.
A quick glance at the Twitter feeds of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre reveals everything you need to know about why Carney is winning and Pierre is not.
Carney’s Twitter feed is full of posts about how “he” will rebuild Canada. He sounds optimistic. Hopeful. Tough. Resolute. There are a few attacks on Poilievre, but not many. His producers know better – they leave the most brutal attacks on the Conservative leader to designated Liberal pitbulls and proxies. Carney’s focus is largely forward.
Up to half of Poilievre’s Twitter posts are vitriolic attacks on Mark Carney. These are interspersed with promises to dismantle Trudeau’s horrific policies, cute images of him with his family to humanize him, a few policy ideas that appeal to ideological Conservatives and a thematic promise to put “Canada First.”
Putting Canada first is a good idea. It was a Liberal slogan back in the day. But it calls to mind “America First” and that makes it sound very Trumpy. Trump is the enemy in the minds of most Canadians, especially NDP refugees. Donald Trump, it would seem, agrees. Context trumps (sorry) what otherwise would be a pithy slogan. Bad messaging decision.
And messaging matters.
At best, Poilievre’s messaging is too broad. For the past year, he was rigorously focused on the Holy Quadrant of “Axe the Tax, Build the Homes, Fix the Budget, Stop the Crime.” To this, he’s now added Canada First, tough on Trump and Carney is evil. It’s too much. He’s selling a handful of ideas in the time it takes to hear one. It’s costing him.
Mark Carney is a complete unknown to most Canadians. In public, he appears as sincere as a can of soup. Which is not to suggest that cans of soup are not sincere. It’s just that they’re, well, cans of soup. They’re products: designed, manufactured, labeled, marketed and sold by people we never see. Just like Justin Trudeau. Just like Carney.
In fact, Carney is produced by the same unseen forces who produced Justin Trudeau. Don’t be surprised when the soup tastes the same.
At the risk of changing metaphors, Carney is a new front man on the same tired old band that plays all the old Trudeau tunes: Scandal in the House, Divide and Conquer, Just One More (Ethics Breach), My Budgets Don’t Balance Themselves, Save the Trees: Starve the People, Just Leave it in the Ground, and everyone’s favourite Western Canada can Fuddle Duddle Itself. Few of them were hits, but all of them are memorable. The songwriters haven’t changed so there’s no reason to believe the songs will.
Given all that, and the man’s complete lack of charisma on camera, how is Carney winning?
Well, his producers (or songwriters, depending on which metaphor you find stickier) are very, very good at their jobs. They took the old can of soup (back to that now) and wrapped it in a new label and are marketing it as “New! Improved” on shelves near you. No free samples, though. No time for that. You must HURRY! WHILE SUPPLIES LAST. Act before April 28!!
Turns out, Carney’s producers are vastly superior to Polievre’s. Nobody has any idea what Carney’s soup taste like, but damn. The packaging! And packaging matters. We’ve all tried Poilievre’s soup: hearty, healthy, a bit bitter. We hated Trudeau’s soup. But, Carney’s can has a shiny new label. Just look at it!
Neither man is the leader Canada desperately needs during this time of war. But we’re going to have to choose one of them.
Poilievre is filling rallies across the country with excited Canadians who have supported him all along. Carney struggles to get enough residents and volunteers out to his own campaign office launch in Nepean, Ontario to outnumber the staffers and reporters. But, he’s winning. Liberal diehards like the new label, the new lead singer, singing the old songs, enough to give it another go. NDP refugees are choosing the Devil they don’t know over the one they do. Oh, God. Another metaphor.
Can Poilievre save this thing?
Yes. But, he’s got to make a fundamental change in his tone, his temper and his messaging. He needs to spend less time feeding his committed base and attacking Mark Carney. He should delegate that to some capable lieutenants (Melissa Lantsman and Michael Barrett seem capable pitbulls) and outside proxies.
Poilievre himself should be focused on painting a picture of a winning Canada that can withstand the onslaught of the Orange menace. He should especially build bridges to NDP refugees – people who’d have voted for Singh in normal times. He’s got a lot to offer them. Ideology aside, they’re worried about the same pragmatic, day-to-day things that worry Conservative voters. But he needs to give them hope in the future and confidence he won’t eat their children when they’re not looking.
Neither of these leaders will win anything on personality. So, it’s going to be messaging that closes the deal. Poilievre needs to refocus his message on the right people – and fundamentally rewrite the script he’s following. The one that got him here won’t get him any further.
Just for info: I've unfortunately had to delete some comments that used offensive language and ban two users who were nonsensical (and persistent) and/or continued to repeat factually (and easily provable) false information even after being corrected.
If there's going to be conversation here – and I hope there is – I'd like it to be friendly and constructive, even when we disagree. 99% of comments continue to meet this standard.
Disagreement is awesome. Stupidity and insistent recital of false myths and rote talking points adds no value to any conversation and should find another forum.
Thanks to everyone who's made this an interesting place to converse!
You know it's already over when the faithful publish stuff like this. Usually you'd wait until the end of the campaign. Poilievre is single-handedly responsible for me turning away from the Conservatives. He's always been a detestible little man with poor judgment. He also was probably indirectly involved in the back-stabbing of the decent man, Erin O’Toole (thank you Ms Byrne). And the catering to the worst motley crew of misfits during the Ottawa occupation was a dumb move in so many ways. He's assembled a weak caucus with a few members who are even more detestable than he is. He has been consistently weak on issues of concern to women to the point of being downright offensive, hence his very poor numbers with them. His tiresome sloganeering using MAGA language became as irritating as Trudeau’s smarm. He has run a miserable campaign and the suspicious endorsements from US right wing nutbars is a very bad look. The fact that he can't give Danielle Smith a rap on the wrists tells Canadians he's afraid to stand up for what is right. She's poison in most of Canada. Anyway, Canada will be a better place with him off the scene should he lose the election. The real question is are we ever going to get a Conservative we can vote for? As long as we've got the current crop to choose from it is impossible. It is beyond time to reinvent the party, or they will forever be an occasional option every 20 years. Not nearly good enough.