Scorecard: What the leaders need to do tonight

Canada's federal party leaders face off tonight in the only English debate. What do they need to do – to win?

I’ll be talking about who did what and how well in the only English-language leaders debate of Canada’s federal election tonight. You can hear what I think at 5:35AM Friday morning on CFRB NEWSTALK 1010 in Toronto – or online at newstalk1010.com.

How will I be assessing their performances?

I’ve helped prepare many politicians for many debates and in every case, I told them the same thing: “You’re not here to win the argument. You’re not here to beat your opponent. You’re here to do one thing. You’re here to get your message through to the viewers at home.”

And I’ll be assessing Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh on exactly that: did they get their message across. (Yes, there will be two other political leaders on the stage – Annamie Paul and Yves Blanchet – but they don’t matter. Still, I’ll assess what I can of their performances, as well)

Of course, when I worked with political candidates, it helped that I knew what their message was before the debate. I don’t here. So, the first task is to determine what I think their messages – their objectives tonight – should/will be.

I’ll update this post with my thoughts on how they did tomorrow. Subscribe to get my assessment in your inbox.

What do the leaders need to accomplish tonight?

Justin Trudeau

As the incumbent, almost all the shots tonight will be aimed at Trudeau. He called the election and it’s his to lose. Normally, the sitting prime minister would laud his record – in Trudeau’s case, he’s been in power for six years – and ask Canadians to remember how much better off they are now than they were before. But, Trudeau doesn’t have that option.

Trudeau’s mission tonight is to make himself appear to be the safest choice for Canadians.

To do this, he will have to make O’Toole and his Conservative Party look like very scary. He will try to hang a whole bunch of scary ideas on O’Toole – from abortion bans to machine guns on every street corner. He will try to make O’Toole look like a false facade covering up the Conservatives wildest fringe candidates and their ideas.

Erin O’Toole

As the leader of the only opposition party that can supplant Trudeau’s Liberals as Canada’s government, O’Toole needs to look and sound like a prime minister.

O’Toole’s mission tonight is to not look scary.

To do this, he needs to appear reasonable at all times. He should sound passionate about Canada and Canadians, but he can’t sound too passionate about the fringe ideas Trudeau will try to tie to him to a bunch of scary ideas and wild statements from fringe Conservative candidates. O’Toole will have to answer those charges with answers that sound reasonable to the average Canadian.

Jagmeet Singh

No matter how well he performs tonight, Singh will not be Prime Minister on September 21. He knows that. But, he wants to keep his job as leader of the NDP and to do that, he needs to make sure his party remains relevant in the next parliament.

Singh’s mission tonight is to make the NDP sound like the smart choice for progressive voters.

To do that, he needs to likeable – and he normally is. But, he needs to point out Trudeau’s flaws: sure, Trudeau talks a good game, but what has he delivered in six years. Sure, Trudeau says he’s a feminist, but look what he does when strong women oppose him, look how he coddles members of his own party who’ve been accused of misconduct with women (as has he). Sure, he’s full of promises about climate change, and affordability, but what has he done?

Annamie Paul

Paul is not in this race to form a government or even win herself a seat in parliament. Paul is fighting for the life of her own Green Party.

Paul’s mission tonight is to convince Green Party of Canada members that she deserves to lead them.

To do that, she needs to sound and look like she belongs on that stage. She was elected by Green Party members who will be watching to see if they made the right choice. Much of the “old and bold” party mandarins have been actively conspiring to destroy her. This is her chance to rally the troops to her cause.

Yves Blanchet

Blanchet wants to consolidate the Bloc’s power in Quebec.

Blanchet’s mission tonight is to make Quebeckers think he’s the only hope for the province to get what it wants.

To do that, he needs to make Mr. Trudeau look like an elitist who was born and raised in Ottawa – not Quebec – and who promises everything, yet delivers nothing. He also needs to ensure that Quebeckers remain wary of O’Toole’s conservatives and dismissive of Singh’s NDP. He will question their policies and sow doubt about their willingness to ensure Quebec gets more than its fair share. Neither O’Toole or Singh will want to diss Quebec, but they’ll shy away from promising riches for la belle province.