Why is Toronto still in lockdown?

Someone's got to tell the mayor he has no clothes.

Is there any city in North America that has been as locked down as Toronto has been, for as long as Toronto has been locked down?

I can’t think of one.

So, why is Toronto still locked down?

The answer is mostly because Toronto Mayor John Tory wants it that way. He, his Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa, and other public health pundits want to keep Toronto as locked down as possible for as long as possible. Why?

Typically, they cite one or more of these four reasons.

No point opening up, then closing again

This is Tory’s favorite go-to excuse. "There is no point in reopening if we are just going to have to close again. I don't think there is anyone who would vote for that," he told CTV last month. He’s used the same or similar line in almost every media interview since then.

But, that’s simply not true. I, for one, vote for a return of my freedoms – any day out of lockdown is better than any day in lockdown. I don’t think I’m alone.

Tory’s approach is akin to telling a convict we’re just going to leave him in solitary confinement because he might have to be segregated again in the future. The prisoner’s perspective may differ.

I suppose it’s possible that for some businesses, the cost of re-opening tomorrow then closing down again next month, might be prohibitive. Those business owners may prefer to simply remain closed. But, that should be their choice – based on their detailed knowledge of their circumstances. John Tory doesn’t know more about their businesses than they do. He should stay out of that decision.

Freedom is our natural state. Infringing on it should require more than just a mayor who thinks your freedom is inconvenient.

Variants of Concern are increasing

“We continue to see concerning growth in cases with variants of concern, which spread more easily and cause more severe illness,” is Dr. Eileen de Villa’s favorite reason for keeping you locked down.

There is lots of evidence some of these variants are more contagious than others. There is considerably less evidence they do more harm, though. But, so what?

Viruses mutate. That’s what they do. Eventually 100 percent of COVID-19 cases will be caused by variants. So far, they all respond to our vaccines. Any future vaccine-resistant variants will be met with new vaccines.

Keeping Canadians locked up until we eradicate this virus appears to be the only plan Toronto has. But, we’re never going to eradicate this virus. Not ever. So, we have to learn to live with it.

These variants are no reason to extend a lockdown.

Case counts are increasing again

This is another favourite excuse for restricting our freedoms. But, it’s not true. Even if it was, it’s not relevant.

Ontario’s own data show the daily number of new cases has been trending steadily downward since the new year began. They’ve been flat since early February.

Figure 1 ­– Number of daily new COVID-19 cases in Ontario (Bar) and 7-day trendline (line) SOURCE: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data

The number of new cases each day is largely irrelevant. People contract the virus every day. And people recover every day. Most days, more people recover than are newly infected. Testing positive for any variant of COVID-19 doesn’t mean you’ll get sick. Most people never do.

What’s more relevant is the number of people dying. But, the news is good on that front too. The number of daily deaths has been trending downward since mid-January when we started vaccinating the frail elderly in Long Term Care homes. They were most of the people who died.

In fact, the death rate from COVID-19 in Ontario is now practically zero.

Figure 2 – SOURCE: https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-analysis/infectious-disease/covid-19-data-surveillance/covid-19-data-tool?tab=trends

Everyone aged 70+ will be fully vaccinated (if they choose to be) within a few weeks. Ontarians aged 60-64 are now being vaccinated in pharmacies. The risk of dying below age 60 is statistically zero.

If you’re over 70 or you’re concerned about your health, stay home. If you rely on a personal support worker – insist he or she is vaccinated. Give the rest of us our freedom back.

We need to protect our hospital system

Yes, we do. But, we’ve already done that.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario’s critical care ICU beds has been flatlined for months. There is no crisis in our ICUs driven by the number of COVID-19 cases.

The province is adding 200 additional ICU beds in two mobile hospitals over the next few weeks. Even if there is another minor surge to the numbers we saw in early January (almost 400) – we have more than enough capacity to manage them.

Figure 3 – COVID-19 cases in Ontario hospitals (Bars) and ICU beds (line) SOURCE: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations

In the meantime, we are ramping up vaccinations and the vaccines are working – as proven by the end of deaths in LTC homes. We don’t need to keep people locked up until everyone is vaccinated.

There is no healthcare crisis any more. It’s over. What we’re facing now is a crisis of freedoms, rights and mental health.

Even Dr. Eileen de Villa said Wednesday, “We know what works: continued masking and distancing are essential to controlling variants of concern.”

She didn’t say anything about lockdowns. So why are we still locked up?